Chinese Aggression at the LAC: A Calculated Move?

India-China ties hinge on PLA actions at the LAC; until then, China remains a pressing strategic threat to India.

Representative image | Chinese armored units positioned along a snow-covered stretch of the Line of Actual Control amid heightened strategic tensions. Source - TheIndianHawk.com

On May 17-18, 2020, Chinese troops from the South Xinjiang military district crossed into Indian-patrolled areas near Patrolling Point 15 (Hot Springs), Patrolling Point 17A (Gogra), and north of Pangong Tso. This military action appears to have been a deliberate attempt by China to unilaterally alter the existing border status quo. The move, likely sanctioned by the Central Military Commission led by President Xi Jinping, aimed to enforce China's 1959 claim line along the 1,597 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in East Ladakh.

The 1959 Claim Line and Its Rejection

The 1959 line, which China continues to push, runs through areas like Kongka La, the Kugrang river, and Finger 4 on the north bank of Pangong Tso. India has consistently and categorically rejected this claim line.

A year after the initial transgression, and after 11 rounds of military talks, the situation along the 3,488 km LAC remains tense but stable. China has been heavily investing in military infrastructure, including building aircraft hangers, laying optical fiber cables, and installing high-tech surveillance systems at its border posts.

The only area where a full disengagement has occurred is the Galwan Valley, a result of a bloody clash that erupted after the Indian Army prevented the PLA (People's Liberation Army) from crossing Patrolling Point 14. 

The PLA has also taken initial disengagement steps at Pangong Tso following a decisive counter-move by the Indian Army on August 29-30, 2020. However, efforts to restore the status quo at the Gogra-Hot Springs area have been slow and challenging.

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A Worsening Relationship and Differing Approaches

Despite diplomatic efforts at the highest levels, including talks between Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi and India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, China continues to refuse to fully de-escalate. President Xi Jinping seems to want a return to "business as usual" without resolving the core friction points.

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India's challenges are compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in Wuhan. While China, an authoritarian state, was able to enforce strict protocols, India's democratic structure has made it more difficult to implement large-scale restrictions. 

The former foreign secretary noted that a letter of support from President Xi to Prime Minister Narendra Modi regarding the pandemic was "like a letter written by an Emperor" because it failed to mention the fundamental issue of restoring peace and tranquility on the LAC.

New Delhi is now wary of parallel diplomacy—the practice of continuing economic relations with Beijing while border tensions persist. Prime Minister Modi and his military advisors are unwilling to separate the two issues. 

India is also a prominent member of the QUAD, a group with an agenda that goes beyond just challenging China, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by Beijing.

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While private communications from China hint at a restoration of the status quo, their public statements are viewed with suspicion. As a diplomat stated, "China broke trust at Kugrang and Pangong Tso last May, the onus is now on paramount leader Xi to restore it. 

India is ready to play either way." The 12th round of military talks has not yet been scheduled, though China has been supportive in providing essential medical supplies to India in its fight against COVID-19.